Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb12b…62de crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$86
other 20% −$31
finance 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +4.4%
all 16 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 50% +4.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -5.6%
15% -22.6% 44% -14.7%
20% -30.2% 44% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$63 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$29 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +88%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 12m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.03 · official $130.03 (match) · 91 history records