Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb12d…26d1 world 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,409 (-7%) realized −$8,628 · open −$1,781
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate53%92W / 82L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$730per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$12,798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$104
14 days+$104
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$10,196
politics 9% −$585
other 6% +$179
finance 4% +$97
sports 0% +$25
tech 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 31% -6.2%
≤30d 29 -5.8% -14.8% 66% 17% -9.8%
≤90d 171 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 13% -12.0%
all 174 -17.7% -25.6% 53% 14% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 14% -15.8%
10% -32.7% 6% -23.9%
15% -39.2% 4% -31.2%
20% -45.1% 2% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$158 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$12,798
Realized−$8,628
Unrealized−$1,781
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses92 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)174 / 194
History coverage185d
Avg bet$730
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $6,842 $6,046 −$797 (-12%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $3,346 $3,600 +$255 (+8%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $2,787 $1,752 −$1,036 (-37%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $387 $298 −$89 (-23%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $206 $226 +$21 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $174 $172 −$2 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $90 $107 +$17 (+19%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? Yes 15¢ $150 $75 −$75 (-50%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $62 $47 −$15 (-25%)
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Yes $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $32 $14 −$18 (-56%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? Yes $51 $14 −$37 (-73%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Yes 61¢ 70¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+16%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? No 25¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $393 +$77 +20%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $331 −$46 -14%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $91 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $364 +$8 +2%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $586 −$5 -1%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 19 $55 −$16 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $5,443 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3,409 −$1,000 -29%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $104 +$9 +9%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $1,398 +$123 +9%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $129 +$29 +22%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 28 $364 −$88 -24%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? May 28 $7 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $720 +$4 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $4,965 −$29 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3,282 +$118 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7,676 −$51 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 26 $8,689 +$143 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $319 −$4 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $10,324 +$156 +2%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2 May 24 $8 −$6 -75%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $3,680 +$309 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $9,107 +$78 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? May 20 $53 −$21 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $81 −$6 -7%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 19 $29 −$8 -28%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $793 −$200 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $10,542 +$153 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 13 $3,894 +$17 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $1,421 +$49 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $3,130 +$8 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 10 $496 +$33 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by May 31, 2026? May 08 $173 +$8 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 08 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 06 $41 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 04 $819 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? May 02 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $376 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $10 −$6 -61%
Trump goes to space in 2026? May 01 $192 +$2 +1%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 01 $70 +$5 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $1,826 +$63 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $1,539 +$133 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $205 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 4h
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 93¢ $205 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $201 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 28h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 29h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 32h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $100 32h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes $5 33h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes $4 35h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY Yes $1 40h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $131 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $134 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $201 2d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes $90 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2d
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $91 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 59¢ $45 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 71¢ $57 2d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,797.85 · official $12,797.94 (match) · 1581 history records