Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb133…c6c6 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 24% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 8% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 29 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage464d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 70¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 77¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 +$2 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $15 $0 -2%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? Mar 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $17 $0 +2%
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $36 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 175d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 355d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.12 (match) · 83 history records