trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 100% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 67% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 67% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 29 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 41% | 3% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.8% | 3% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 71¢ | 70¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 77¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $36 | +$2 | +5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 08 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 06 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 05 | $14 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 21 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jun 24 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? | Apr 30 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 24 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $12 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | -12% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Apr 12 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 09 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 08 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 07 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 27 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Mar 22 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Mar 21 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? | Mar 20 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | Mar 11 | $16 | $0 | +1% |