Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb136…01e5 politics 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-2%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%72W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days−$54
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$9
other 25% −$11
world 18% −$69
sports 12% +$3
crypto 7% −$2
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.0% -11.3% 20% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 61 -0.5% -10.0% 2% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 129 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 0% -12.0%
all 266 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -11.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses72 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage145d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $600 −$53 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $25 $0 -2%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $18 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $22 $0 -2%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $547 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $600 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 25h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 25h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $6 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 8d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $2 8d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $6 8d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records