Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb138…7252 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+2%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$86
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3
other 33% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 7% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.1% -17.7% 40% 20% -5.3%
≤30d 11 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 9% -7.9%
≤90d 11 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 9% -7.9%
all 11 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 9% -7.9%
10% -21.5% 9% -16.7%
15% -29.1% 9% -24.7%
20% -36.0% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $485 $485 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $452 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $323 +$177 +55%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $481 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $433 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $452 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $511 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 64¢ $323 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $530 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $531 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $433 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $452 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $500 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $511 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.76 · official $484.76 (match) · 35 history records