Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb13c…5e2d crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,655 (-32%) realized −$2,655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$237
tech 19% −$1,276
other 11% −$731
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -22.4% -29.8% 51% 43% -7.2%
≤30d 53 -22.4% -29.8% 51% 43% -7.2%
≤90d 58 -29.1% -35.9% 47% 40% -7.8%
all 108 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 36% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 36% -35.2%
10% -30.7% 29% -41.4%
15% -37.4% 25% -47.1%
20% -43.5% 19% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$59 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage344d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $408 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $134 +$87 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $611 +$74 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $114 −$76 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$84 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $317 +$87 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $306 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $123 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $107 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $47 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $304 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $132 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records