Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb13c…59b2 other 8 markets active 9h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$575 (+57%) realized +$572 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$143
sports 39% +$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +78.0%
≤30d 6 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +78.0%
≤90d 6 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +78.0%
all 6 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +78.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +77.8% 100% +78.0%
10% +60.8% 67% +61.0%
15% +45.2% 67% +45.4%
20% +31.0% 67% +31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$572
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 69¢ $200 $248 +$48 (+24%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $87 +$93 +107%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$15 +15%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$67 +66%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $103 +$297 +287%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$90 +88%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $205 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $204 9h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $87 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 27h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.18 · official $403.21 (match) · 14 history records