Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb146…c098 other 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$515 (-2%) realized +$71 · open −$586
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%394W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$80
14 days−$277
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$34
other 23% −$566
politics 14% −$187
world 11% +$151
crypto 7% −$39
finance 4% −$86
tech 2% −$120
economics 2% −$62
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +158.3% +133.7% 68% 42% -15.0%
≤30d 171 +214.9% +184.9% 68% 48% -15.2%
≤90d 475 +112.5% +92.3% 65% 41% -18.2%
all 603 +90.0% +71.9% 65% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.9% 43% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here +55.4% 34% -20.2%
15% +40.4% 28% -27.9%
20% +26.7% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +179% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2,017
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$586
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses394 / 209
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions187
Markets (closed)603 / 790
History coverage102d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 187 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 76¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $83 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $70 $62 −$9 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 86¢ 84¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 60¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 61¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-10%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $58 $48 −$10 (-17%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-18%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 50¢ 36¢ $51 $37 −$14 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $41 $36 −$5 (-12%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $45 $35 −$10 (-23%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $38 $32 −$5 (-14%)
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $11 $30 +$19 (+173%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 74¢ 69¢ $33 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 30¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-36%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 36¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $21 $25 +$3 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 83¢ 65¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-22%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 76¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 30¢ 22¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 79¢ 81¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +78%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$23 +294%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $76 +$73 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $130 +$67 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $64 −$6 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $22 −$9 -39%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $165 −$40 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $24 +$9 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? Jun 14 $13 +$3 +19%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $18 3h
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $11 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 79¢ $10 9h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? SELL No 92¢ $12 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 14h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 78¢ $10 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $6 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $85 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 90¢ $4 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 90¢ $2 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 90¢ $4 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 85¢ $10 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $30 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $20 28h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 30h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 30h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL No 93¢ $11 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $18 33h
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 33h
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 34h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? SELL No 93¢ $14 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $11 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $14 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $8 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $4 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,016.83 · official $1,998.87 (match) · 3166 history records