Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb147…3830 crypto 73 markets active 4h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+2%) realized +$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate85%61W / 11L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$65
sports 4% +$54
other 0% −$11
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 33% -9.2%
≤90d 53 +0.5% -9.0% 81% 34% -8.3%
all 72 +2.4% -7.4% 85% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 36% -8.3%
10% -16.2% 17% -17.0%
15% -24.3% 11% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses61 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage140d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $136 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $71 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$35 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $135 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $112 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $58 +$28 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $87 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $86 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $460 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,012 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $523 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $741 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $346 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $1,079 +$75 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 293 history records