Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb149…a060 crypto 51 markets active 3h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-21%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$13
14 days−$73
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$67
crypto 38% −$38
other 19% −$13
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.4% -7.4% 25% 25% -21.5%
≤30d 30 -6.8% -15.6% 37% 33% -27.7%
≤90d 37 -19.8% -27.4% 32% 30% -30.4%
all 50 -22.3% -29.7% 36% 30% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 30% -31.0%
10% -36.4% 26% -37.6%
15% -42.6% 24% -43.6%
20% -48.2% 20% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage109d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$13 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +203%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $134 −$41 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $37 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 05 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 05 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 01 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 42h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $75 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $70 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $10.09 (match) · 113 history records