Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb14d…55d4 sports 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$437 (-13%) realized −$427 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%135W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$7
crypto 36% −$536
other 6% +$62
tech 1% −$21
world 1% −$10
politics 1% −$2
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +8.7% -1.6% 38% 32% -14.6%
≤30d 37 +8.7% -1.6% 38% 32% -14.6%
≤90d 37 +8.7% -1.6% 38% 32% -14.6%
all 460 -5.6% -14.6% 29% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 28% -25.0%
10% -22.7% 27% -32.1%
15% -30.2% 24% -38.7%
20% -37.0% 21% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$427
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses135 / 325
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)460 / 478
History coverage219d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Flame Team 31¢ 15¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Marie Bouzkova 34¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gleason Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Francisco Cerundolo 35¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Magdalena Frech 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Korpatsch/Webley-Smith Korpatsch/Webley-Smith 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India South Africa 37¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group C CHAOS 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $5 +$15 +291%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +474%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $5 +$26 +510%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +58%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$76 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $235 −$125 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $135 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $134 −$9 -7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 17 $7 +$4 +52%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 +$6 +158%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 22 Jan 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GenOne (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Jan 21 $12 +$48 +400%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 21 $2 +$10 +505%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jan 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 14 Jan 14 $10 +$22 +224%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 14 Jan 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blues Jan 14 $1 +$2 +150%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals Jan 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas Jayhawks Jan 14 $1 +$2 +170%
UIC Flames vs. Northern Iowa Panthers Jan 14 $1 +$2 +245%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Buffalo Bulls Jan 14 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 14? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 58m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 37¢ $1 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 27¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 37¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 34¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 35¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Korpatsch/Webley-Smit BUY Korpatsch/Webley-Smith 15¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Hamish Stewart $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre BUY Peyton Stearns 22¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus BUY Renata Zarazua 35¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 34¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Flame Team 31¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group C BUY CHAOS 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $10 15h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 52¢ $17 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up $5 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.29 · official $30.26 (match) · 883 history records