Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb150…e076 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5
politics 29% +$3
tech 14% +$1
other 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 0% -8.3%
all 8 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×34.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×57.64 per $1 lost it wins $57.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage109d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $142 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 30 $139 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 29 $138 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $136 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records