Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb150…0c16 crypto 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-9%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$144
14 days−$170
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$329
other 5% −$34
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -43.1% -48.5% 34% 24% -43.8%
≤30d 149 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 31% -23.0%
≤90d 149 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 31% -23.0%
all 149 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 31% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 31% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 21% -30.4%
15% -40.4% 10% -37.1%
20% -46.3% 9% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage18d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$18 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 747 history records