Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb152…8315 politics 47 markets active 583d ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,082 (-3%) realized −$12,082 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,426per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$11,844
finance 3% −$169
sports 1% +$987
other 0% −$1,075
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 47 -20.5% -28.0% 32% 23% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 23% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 19% -21.0%
15% -41.2% 17% -28.6%
20% -47.0% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$6,379) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
30.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,481 vs −$2,947 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,082
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage175d
Avg bet$7,426
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? Nov 22 $3,040 +$4,880 +160%
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? Nov 22 $3,330 −$3,330 -100%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary? Nov 19 $2,610 −$1,719 -66%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 19 $3,554 −$1,233 -35%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump appoint Scott Jennings for White House Press Secretary? Nov 19 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 19 $2,729 −$1,529 -56%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Nov 11 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Lions vs. Texans Nov 11 $2,010 +$987 +49%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Nov 11 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 Nov 11 $923 −$923 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Nov 11 $3,856 −$3,856 -100%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 11 $19,745 +$16,858 +85%
Will Trump win Miami? Nov 11 $144 +$86 +59%
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 09 $7,856 +$2,885 +37%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 08 $915 +$171 +19%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $450 −$450 -100%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $17,120 −$5,853 -34%
Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? Nov 06 $6,379 −$4,379 -69%
Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $22,560 +$2,890 +13%
Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Electi Nov 06 $22,569 −$19,936 -88%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Nov 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Nov 05 $105,085 +$1,721 +2%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Nov 05 $6,792 −$471 -7%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Nov 05 $900 +$35 +4%
Kamala president by Friday? Nov 05 $479 −$479 -100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Nov 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Nov 05 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Don Samuels win the MN-5 Democratic House District? Nov 05 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Nov 05 $6,506 −$3,411 -52%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Nov 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Kamala lead by 0-0.9 August 30? Nov 05 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Nov 05 $1,960 −$1,959 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Nov 05 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Trump lead on August 30? Nov 05 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Nov 05 $760 −$760 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 Oct 17 $1,677 −$160 -10%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Aug 24 $4,270 +$5,500 +129%
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 31 $25,876 −$19,344 -75%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 27 $594 +$194 +33%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 19 $46,331 −$12,168 -26%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Jul 16 $2,800 −$800 -29%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 15 $7,220 +$44,306 +614%
Will Biden finish his term? Jul 03 $900 +$1 +0%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Jul 03 $5,200 +$462 +9%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 22 $334 +$1,241 +372%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? SELL Yes 99¢ $6,438 583d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,152 583d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? SELL Yes 99¢ $331 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $3 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $37 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $0 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $0 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $0 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $0 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $131 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $6 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $3 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $45 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $11 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $3 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $11 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $4 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $18 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $44 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $9 583d
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? BUY Yes $1 583d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1761 history records