Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb154…0f3a crypto 1665 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$501 (+4%) realized +$501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%886W / 779L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day52.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$194
14 days−$141
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$527
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 51% -20.8%
≤30d 1462 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 53% -16.5%
≤90d 1665 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 53% -14.0%
all 1665 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 53% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 53% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 53% -22.2%
15% -28.2% 53% -29.7%
20% -35.2% 53% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses886 / 779
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1665 / 1665
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1665 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records