trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Germany | 52¢ | 50¢ | $300 | $286 | −$14 (-5%) |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 | Over | 66¢ | 64¢ | $200 | $195 | −$5 (-2%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $200 | $178 | −$22 (-11%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $89 | −$11 (-11%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $40 | −$10 (-21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21? | Jun 14 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 14 | $256 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jun 14 | $1,888 | −$1,888 | -100% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $102 | +$282 | +276% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $354 | −$194 | -55% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $506 | +$355 | +70% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $51 | −$7 | -13% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $500 | +$399 | +80% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +11.3% | +0.7% | 43% | 29% | -52.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +11.3% | +0.7% | 43% | 29% | -52.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +11.3% | +0.7% | 43% | 29% | -52.6% |
| all | 8 | +19.9% | +8.4% | 50% | 38% | -37.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +8.4% | 38% | -37.3% |
| 10% | -1.9% | 38% | -43.3% |
| 15% | -11.4% | 38% | -48.7% |
| 20% | -20.1% | 38% | -53.8% |