Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb157…1808
weather · 385 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$27 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses277 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)377 / 385
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 377 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 88¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 81¢ 75¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 46¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$28
sports 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 76¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 82¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 71¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? BUY No 71¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? BUY No 78¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.0% -14.1% 79% 56% -14.1%
≤30d 226 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 55% -9.3%
≤90d 377 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 49% -13.7%
all 377 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 49% -13.7%
10% -21.5% 33% -22.0%
15% -29.1% 20% -29.5%
20% -36.0% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.13 · official $8.13 (match) · 842 history records