Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb158…91f4 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-32%) realized −$187 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$211
other 34% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -43.2% -48.6% 0% 0% -48.6%
≤90d 3 -81.1% -82.9% 0% 0% -73.6%
all 3 -81.1% -82.9% 0% 0% -73.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.9% 0% -73.6%
10% -84.5% 0% -76.2%
15% -86.0% 0% -78.5%
20% -87.4% 0% -80.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$69 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage62d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-0%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $264 $167 −$97 (-37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $149 −$65 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? Apr 29 $38 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? Apr 28 $111 −$106 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 23¢ $158 1h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 4d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 6d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 8d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 8d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $105 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $24 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $36 12d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 12d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL No 9¢ $85 22d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 14¢ $43 22d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 14¢ $27 22d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 14¢ $27 22d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 14¢ $27 22d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 14¢ $27 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.47 · official $446.49 (match) · 41 history records