Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb15b…91a1 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$28
politics 21% −$5
economics 8% −$2
sports 7% −$26
tech 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -4.1% -13.2% 11% 6% -9.8%
all 112 -4.1% -13.2% 11% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 5% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage90d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $379 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $380 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $355 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $351 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $173 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $383 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $370 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $357 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $354 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $572 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $377 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $175 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $72 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 23d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.58 · official $97.43 (match) · 315 history records