Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb15c…604a sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$402 (-4%) realized −$462 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%50W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$610
14 days−$627
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$511
other 31% −$636
crypto 16% −$424
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 32% -36.7%
≤30d 79 -5.1% -14.2% 44% 42% -15.8%
≤90d 123 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 37% -14.8%
all 123 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 37% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 37% -14.8%
10% -25.2% 37% -23.0%
15% -32.4% 34% -30.4%
20% -39.1% 31% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$57 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$462
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses50 / 73
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage34d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $100 $160 +$60 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $91 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$76 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$47 +91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $295 +$49 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$52 -51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$23 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$104 +510%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$32 -62%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $46 −$31 -66%
Sierra Leone vs. Liberia: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $15 +$14 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$13 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Denmark? Jun 03 $140 +$166 +118%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $96 +$27 +28%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $202 −$63 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $155 +$59 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $63 +$33 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5 May 31 $103 −$28 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $22 +$29 +133%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 May 29 $102 +$136 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $31 −$11 -35%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 May 28 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC end in a draw? May 28 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $202 +$102 +50%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $51 +$58 +114%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $101 +$36 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $96 +$59 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $91 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $68 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $65 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $93 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $93 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $75 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $198 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $97 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 14¢ $21 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $100 7d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.42 · official $160.42 (match) · 222 history records