Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb160…9681 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$382 (-9%) realized −$379 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$708
14 days+$352
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$576
sports 28% +$197
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +103.5% +84.1% 100% 100% +54.5%
≤30d 8 +32.8% +20.1% 75% 75% -7.8%
≤90d 13 +7.1% -3.1% 62% 62% -9.8%
all 76 -23.2% -30.5% 45% 45% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 45% -19.1%
10% -37.1% 39% -26.9%
15% -43.2% 33% -33.9%
20% -48.8% 28% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$379
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage581d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 85¢ 84¢ $426 $423 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $167 +$91 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $339 +$63 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $339 +$54 +16%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $154 +$500 +325%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $242 +$55 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $528 −$518 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $415 +$107 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $310 −$306 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Madrid Open: Talia Gibson vs Emiliana Arango Apr 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 22 $12 +$10 +83%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 20 $23 +$18 +79%
Will Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs Feb 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $21 −$19 -88%
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets Feb 04 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $32 +$61 +194%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 23 $33 +$24 +74%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $93 −$46 -50%
Sharks vs. Kings Jan 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Dec 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Dec 11 $13 +$4 +28%
Texans vs. Colts Nov 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Nov 27 $24 +$13 +56%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 10 $14 −$14 -100%
North Carolina vs. Syracuse Oct 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-10-26? Oct 31 $12 +$8 +70%
Predators vs. Maple Leafs Oct 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Celtics vs. Raptors Oct 14 $14 +$12 +82%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 10 $8 +$7 +82%
Athletics vs. Red Sox Oct 01 $11 +$7 +70%
Pirates vs. Reds Sep 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Sep 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Royals vs. Guardians Sep 13 $8 +$8 +89%
Mets vs. Tigers Sep 09 $8 +$7 +85%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-30? Sep 02 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Aug 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Brewers vs. Reds Aug 24 $10 +$9 +85%
Lynx vs Liberty Aug 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Rangers vs. Mariners Aug 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Tigers vs. Pirates Jul 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Jul 22 $19 +$6 +33%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jul 16 $12 +$11 +96%
Cardinals vs. Cubs Jul 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Mets vs. Pirates Jul 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $428 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $167 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $339 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $339 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $154 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $242 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $528 11d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $415 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $310 15d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $12 43d
Madrid Open: Talia Gibson vs Emiliana Arango BUY Talia Gibson 52¢ $16 67d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $12 73d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 67¢ $15 81d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 68¢ $43 88d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 66¢ $42 100d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 56¢ $23 104d
Will Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 117d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 65¢ $53 120d
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs BUY Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns 29¢ $27 131d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? SELL No 26¢ $3 133d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? BUY No 27¢ $21 133d
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blackhawks 43¢ $58 143d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 34¢ $32 156d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $46 156d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Lakers 58¢ $21 158d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Lakers 57¢ $12 158d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $93 158d
Sharks vs. Kings BUY Kings 70¢ $43 171d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Trail Blazers 61¢ $17 198d
Clippers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 78¢ $13 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.35 · official $423.35 (match) · 130 history records