Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb16a…7dbd world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$3
politics 15% $0
other 8% +$1
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 0% -9.0%
all 45 +0.5% -9.1% 27% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage275d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $53 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 +$2 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $44 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $4 $0 +9%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -11%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 13m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $13 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $39 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records