Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb16f…9bd7 crypto 1433 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$484 (-1%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate85%1219W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$343
14 days−$168
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$721
sports 3% +$91
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 512 +1.2% -8.4% 73% 56% -15.0%
≤30d 1097 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 37% -10.2%
≤90d 1396 +1.0% -8.6% 85% 34% -10.8%
all 1433 +1.0% -8.7% 85% 35% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 35% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 24% -19.5%
15% -25.4% 16% -27.3%
20% -32.7% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1219 / 214
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1433 / 1433
History coverage100d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1433 Trades
no open positions (176 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$13 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$5 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$12 +39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +66%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $14 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3258 history records