Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb171…7d2b sports 1425 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,431 (+3%) realized +$2,464 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%832W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days+$435
30 days+$916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,702
other 5% +$593
crypto 0% +$31
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 196 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 61% -1.2%
≤90d 1073 -20.4% -28.0% 48% 48% -22.8%
all 1420 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 58% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 58% -6.9%
10% -18.6% 56% -15.8%
15% -26.5% 47% -23.9%
20% -33.7% 34% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$45 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$2,464
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses832 / 588
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1420 / 1425
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+11%)
ITF Porto: Tiago Torres vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Tiago Torres 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 48¢ $86 $47 −$38 (-45%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Zsombor Piros 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 58¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $32 −$32 -99%
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $58 +$72 +122%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $146 +$54 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $14 +$4 +26%
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Maccabi Raanana Jun 14 $60 +$48 +81%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 158.5 Jun 14 $99 +$62 +62%
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $49 +$32 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $82 +$18 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $66 +$44 +66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $76 +$74 +96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $61 +$25 +42%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $39 +$11 +29%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $56 −$3 -5%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $74 +$20 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: BC Zalgiris Kaunas (-15.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Juventus Utena: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $150 +$101 +68%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $19 +$10 +55%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $72 +$78 +108%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 +$84 +127%
ITF kiseljak: Ivan Biletic vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 12 $47 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 +$52 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $94 +$56 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $84 +$66 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $74 +$76 +104%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 11 $6 +$8 +142%
ITF Madrid: Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Johanne Christine Svendsen Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $69 −$68 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Jana Kovackova Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $201 +$52 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 +$15 +50%
Zsombor Piros vs. Akira Santillan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $82 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Porto: Tiago Torres vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Tiago Torres 66¢ $51 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Zsombor Piros 40¢ $31 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 58¢ $32 18h
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 56¢ $3 19h
Will Lamine Yamal score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $57 2d
Will Lamine Yamal score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $29 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $58 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $14 9d
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $55 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $34 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 47¢ $30 10d
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Hapoel Galil Elyon 55¢ $50 10d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 77¢ $67 10d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 10d
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Hapoel Galil Elyon 56¢ $10 10d
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris BUY Sebastian Gorzny 56¢ $51 10d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 10d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $93 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $14 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $0 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $25 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $3 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $6 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $5 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $34 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $7 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.68 · official $205.68 (match) · 3500 history records