Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb172…ce39
other · 91 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$16 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage460d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 2 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $92 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $188 +$1 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $264 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $207 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $175 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $254 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $213 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $277 +$4 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $518 −$8 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $114 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $179 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $377 +$6 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $131 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $149 +$10 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $34 −$4 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $74 +$9 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $167 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $298 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $97 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $909 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $910 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $909 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $910 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $909 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$20
other 21% $0
politics 19% −$4
sports 18% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $92 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $45 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $126 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $171 8h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $125 17h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $171 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $189 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $188 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $99 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $99 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $37 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $88 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $87 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $131 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $147 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 38 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 5% -9.4%
all 89 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.45 · official $90.47 (match) · 345 history records