Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb172…7862 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-11%) realized −$112 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$312
sports 29% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 35% -39.4%
≤30d 34 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 35% -39.4%
≤90d 34 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 35% -39.4%
all 34 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 35% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 35% -39.4%
10% -22.2% 32% -45.2%
15% -29.8% 32% -50.5%
20% -36.6% 32% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$22 +108%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$44 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$14 +81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 +$26 +130%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$56 +273%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$68 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 0¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $55 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $10 15h
Austria leading at halftime? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $20 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 42h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 43¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $36 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 39¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.33 · official $18.33 (match) · 55 history records