Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb173…4677 crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$137
14 days−$137
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$413
other 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.5% -28.1% 58% 37% -27.2%
≤30d 90 -6.0% -15.0% 52% 41% -12.9%
≤90d 90 -6.0% -15.0% 52% 41% -12.9%
all 117 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 40% -12.9%
10% -23.0% 22% -21.2%
15% -30.5% 17% -28.8%
20% -37.3% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$58 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage106d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $82 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $163 −$119 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$44 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $82 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $81 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $156 +$113 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $184 −$53 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 02 $267 +$107 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $218 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $120 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $53 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 02 $112 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 493 history records