Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb178…7073 other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 25% −$22
politics 11% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage137d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $464 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $651 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $482 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $356 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $360 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $143 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $374 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $824 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $451 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $401 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $62 9m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 30m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 16h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 20h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 28h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $62 30h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 31h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 31h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.75 · official $61.75 (match) · 1376 history records