Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb17b…f094 crypto 459 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,986 (-14%) realized −$3,920 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%226W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day116.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,291
world 0% −$33
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -77.7% -79.8% 8% 8% -80.4%
≤30d 585 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 38% -26.3%
≤90d 585 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 38% -26.3%
all 585 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 38% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 38% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 38% -33.3%
15% -44.2% 36% -39.8%
20% -49.7% 34% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$47 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$3,920
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses226 / 359
Open positions1
Markets (closed)585 / 459
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day116.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 39¢ 26¢ $194 $127 −$66 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 347 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$40 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$61 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$16 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$24 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$27 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $23 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.48 · official $122.48 · 3500 history records