Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B1 0xb17d…02f1 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$148 (+9%) realized +$104 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$230
14 days+$143
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$45
sports 30% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.9% +19.3% 40% 40% +27.9%
≤30d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 40% 40% +0.9%
≤90d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 40% 40% +0.9%
all 20 -2.9% -12.1% 40% 40% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 40% +0.9%
10% -20.6% 40% -8.8%
15% -28.2% 35% -17.6%
20% -35.3% 30% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$39 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+19%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$113 +550%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$6 -23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$44 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 53m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $92 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.62 · official $388.62 (match) · 33 history records