Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb17d…59ae world 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,406 (+8%) realized +$9,178 · open +$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%128W / 36L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$16,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$1,273
14 days+$4,037
30 days+$4,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3,624
other 13% −$1,432
culture 11% +$1,858
politics 4% +$445
sports 3% +$718
crypto 3% +$2,683
tech 1% +$18
finance 1% +$163
weather 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 41% +1.8%
≤30d 115 -2.2% -11.5% 72% 38% -2.3%
≤90d 152 +0.4% -9.1% 76% 41% -1.5%
all 164 +0.8% -8.8% 78% 38% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 38% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 22% -11.3%
15% -25.5% 13% -19.9%
20% -32.8% 10% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$810) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$176 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$16,703
Realized+$9,178
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses128 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions56
Markets (closed)164 / 220
History coverage103d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,640 $2,745 +$105 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,616 $1,661 +$45 (+3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $992 $1,094 +$102 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1,031 $738 −$293 (-28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $584 $598 +$15 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $524 $585 +$61 (+12%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $553 $562 +$9 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $354 $400 +$46 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $384 $399 +$15 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $368 $397 +$29 (+8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $322 $383 +$61 (+19%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $372 $380 +$7 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $375 $375 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $338 $362 +$24 (+7%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $296 $299 +$3 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $296 $299 +$3 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $249 $295 +$46 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $245 $260 +$15 (+6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $216 $245 +$29 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 57¢ $276 $230 −$46 (-17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $199 +$5 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $199 +$5 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $165 $198 +$33 (+20%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 73¢ 98¢ $146 $196 +$50 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 23 $59 −$8 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $202 +$8 +4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 22 $43 +$7 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,474 −$148 -10%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $608 +$356 +59%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $235 +$65 +28%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $146 +$54 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $518 +$132 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $294 +$106 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,451 +$149 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 18 $1,582 −$67 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,332 +$68 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $764 +$36 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $372 +$28 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,173 +$130 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $311 −$95 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $389 −$55 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $894 −$23 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $253 +$37 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $186 −$20 -11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $423 +$444 +105%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $160 +$38 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,365 −$176 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,429 −$93 -6%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $174 −$5 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $194 −$3 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $63 −$26 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $104 +$46 +44%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $393 +$7 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,980 +$25 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $837 +$91 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $256 +$34 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $204 +$240 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,284 +$871 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,100 +$135 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $165 +$149 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $580 +$53 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,358 +$495 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "The Invite" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 15¢ $51 12h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 17¢ $17 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 19¢ $19 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 25h
Will "The Invite" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer BUY Yes 95¢ $30 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 97¢ $194 41h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 14¢ $28 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 81¢ $8 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 16¢ $8 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 19¢ $10 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $80 47h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $40 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $42 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 44¢ $22 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 52¢ $26 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $32 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $36 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $121 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $594 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $395 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $536 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,702.89 · official $16,687.00 (match) · 1568 history records