Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb17e…6976 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$146 (-34%) realized −$147 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$136
sports 14% −$1
crypto 2% −$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -41.9% -47.4% 34% 32% -40.7%
≤30d 44 -41.9% -47.4% 34% 32% -40.7%
≤90d 44 -41.9% -47.4% 34% 32% -40.7%
all 44 -41.9% -47.4% 34% 32% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.4% 32% -40.7%
10% -52.4% 30% -46.4%
15% -57.0% 11% -51.6%
20% -61.3% 9% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$26 +60%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$10 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$32 +31%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +339%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 20m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $41 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $133 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 27h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.51 · official $11.40 · 106 history records