Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb17e…cbe2 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$158 (+19%) realized +$161 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$174
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$155
other 33% −$2
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +107.5% +87.7% 100% 100% +88.0%
≤90d 9 +13.3% +2.5% 89% 22% +16.9%
all 14 +8.8% -1.6% 93% 14% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 14% +13.4%
10% -11.0% 14% +2.6%
15% -19.6% 14% -7.4%
20% -27.5% 14% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$160 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage168d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $229 $226 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $153 +$174 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $139 +$141 +101%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Feb 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 10? Feb 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $820 in December? Jan 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.20 · official $226.20 (match) · 30 history records