Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb186…00cd crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$386 (-6%) realized −$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%65W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$170
14 days−$720
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -41.8% -47.3% 29% 29% -50.9%
≤30d 128 -13.4% -21.7% 43% 39% -17.0%
≤90d 160 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 38% -18.8%
all 160 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -18.8%
10% -29.6% 36% -26.6%
15% -36.4% 31% -33.6%
20% -42.6% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$31 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses65 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage31d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$20 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$39 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $157 −$27 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $42 +$55 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$60 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $42 −$40 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records