Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb187…d3f5 crypto 460 markets active 6d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%154W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days+$294
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$153
other 7% −$104
politics 2% −$39
sports 2% −$6
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.5% +22.6% 67% 67% -24.0%
≤30d 46 +46.6% +32.6% 41% 41% +47.2%
≤90d 299 -52.4% -57.0% 16% 15% -22.2%
all 460 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 31% -9.8%
10% -33.8% 27% -18.4%
15% -40.2% 26% -26.3%
20% -46.1% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses154 / 306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)460 / 460
History coverage136d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 460 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $38 −$36 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $34 −$30 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $27 +$62 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$6 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$23 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$35 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$72 +487%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $52 +$99 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $29 +$24 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $16 +$61 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8PM ET Jun 04 $27 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 03 $19 +$19 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$7 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$26 +412%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$133 +1040%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$20 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$29 +309%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 01 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $25 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET May 31 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 27 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 27 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 3¢ $9 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 18¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? SELL No 2¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 23¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 29¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $18 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No 15¢ $34 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $12 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 30¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 30¢ $65 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 80¢ $38 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? SELL No 54¢ $87 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $12 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1308 history records