trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 29% | 29% | -4.7% |
| ≤30d | 20 | +15.0% | +4.0% | 30% | 30% | -13.8% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +15.0% | +4.0% | 30% | 30% | -13.8% |
| all | 28 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 32% | 25% | -16.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 25% | -16.3% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 21% | -24.3% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 21% | -31.6% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 18% | -38.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $210 | $208 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 19¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $23 | $30 | +$7 (+30%) |
| Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? | Yes | 13¢ | 4¢ | $20 | $7 | −$13 (-65%) |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | $15 | $3 | −$12 (-79%) |
| England leading at halftime? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $210 | $0 | −$210 (-100%) |
| England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 | Over | 37¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? | Jun 23 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $102 | +$142 | +140% |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? | Jun 23 | $21 | +$104 | +510% |
| Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $303 | −$300 | -99% |
| Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score | Jun 21 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $31 | +$269 | +874% |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $708 | +$534 | +75% |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5) | Jun 20 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 20 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $107 | −$105 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $54 | −$53 | -98% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $55 | −$54 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $338 | −$336 | -99% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $225 | +$113 | +50% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $111 | −$109 | -99% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $121 | −$120 | -99% |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025? | Jan 21 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South? | Jan 05 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 02 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? | Jan 02 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jan 02 | $43 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan | Jan 02 | $35 | −$5 | -13% |
| Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? | Dec 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | Dec 30 | $21 | −$1 | -4% |