Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb18f…688e politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$1
other 24% +$1
sports 19% +$4
world 18% −$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -10.9%
all 38 +0.9% -8.7% 32% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage300d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 29 $2 $0 -15%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will SC Braga vs. Lincoln Red Imps FC end in a draw? Aug 28 $6 +$4 +55%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $21 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $27 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $49 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $49 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $49 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 13d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 187d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $5 244d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 258d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 258d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $19 258d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $9 258d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $28 259d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 259d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 259d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 86¢ $28 259d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 259d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 260d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 87¢ $28 261d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 262d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 262d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 262d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 262d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 262d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $26 264d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.26 · official $33.26 (match) · 119 history records