Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb193…fd4b other 77 markets active 19h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 83% −$28
politics 8% −$7
other 6% −$10
sports 1% +$43
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 60 +8.0% -2.3% 18% 13% -8.6%
all 74 +7.2% -3.0% 23% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 14% -9.5%
10% -12.3% 14% -18.2%
15% -20.7% 12% -26.1%
20% -28.5% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage600d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $107 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $7 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 18h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 20h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 39h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 42h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $6 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $9 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 23d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.78 · official $95.78 (match) · 267 history records