Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb196…dbbb crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$185 (-37%) realized −$173 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$96
world 18% −$85
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -51.3%
≤30d 20 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -51.3%
≤90d 20 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -51.3%
all 20 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.3% 15% -51.3%
10% ← realistic here -54.2% 15% -56.0%
15% -58.6% 15% -60.3%
20% -62.7% 15% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$18 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 21¢ 10¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$27 +26%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$26 +490%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$80 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $74 −$71 -96%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $33 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $85 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.60 · official $12.60 (match) · 69 history records