Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb197…9a01 sports 73 markets active 20h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-17%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$12
other 19% −$37
crypto 11% −$38
world 10% −$40
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 29% -8.2%
≤30d 17 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 29% -8.2%
≤90d 73 -16.8% -24.7% 30% 30% -26.7%
all 73 -16.8% -24.7% 30% 30% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 30% -26.7%
10% -31.9% 29% -33.7%
15% -38.5% 27% -40.1%
20% -44.5% 25% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage71d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +216%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$18 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 −$5 -51%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $7 +$10 +145%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$19 +364%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $7 +$5 +71%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $7 −$3 -42%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 $0 +11%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $5 +$3 +68%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $5 +$3 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$5 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $10 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $24 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $40 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 24¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $8 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records