Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb19f…b23e other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,077 (-1%) realized −$2,077 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%40W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,698per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$38
14 days−$70
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$160
other 37% −$85
sports 11% −$1,876
world 4% −$9
culture 1% −$4
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$15
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +14.4% +3.5% 15% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 98 -1.0% -10.5% 9% 6% -10.8%
all 159 +9.6% -0.8% 25% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 13% -10.2%
10% -10.3% 13% -18.8%
15% -19.0% 13% -26.7%
20% -26.9% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,851) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$28 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,077
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses40 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,698
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $2,855 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,790 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $5,518 −$7 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,439 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $3,210 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,976 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,276 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,438 −$5 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,942 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,661 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $4,085 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,901 −$8 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $67 +$73 +109%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,987 −$8 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,851 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$77 +165%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $59 +$111 +188%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,760 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $648 +$2 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $4,183 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,886 −$4 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $4,023 −$6 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $49 +$63 +129%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $77 +$59 +76%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5,726 −$8 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $283 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $284 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,619 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,622 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,654 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,656 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,517 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,519 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,552 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,555 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,594 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,597 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,589 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,592 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,632 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,634 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,624 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,627 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,539 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,542 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $295 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,563 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,659 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,661 11d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 589 history records