Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1a0…fb89 crypto 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,529 (-5%) realized −$7,518 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%282W / 298L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$1,464est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days−$647
14 days−$3,499
30 days−$4,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$7,333
other 24% +$339
crypto 22% −$2,064
politics 1% −$6
world 1% −$13
weather 0% −$28
finance 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -13.8%
≤30d 134 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 35% -21.5%
≤90d 580 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 42% -14.2%
all 580 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 42% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 37% -22.5%
15% -24.0% 31% -29.9%
20% -31.4% 24% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$149 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$7,518
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses282 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,464
Open positions1
Markets (closed)580 / 585
History coverage88d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Petra Marcinko 16¢ 14¢ $129 $118 −$11 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $197 −$162 -82%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $150 +$142 +94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $1,265 −$401 -32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $264 −$218 -82%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $363 −$34 -9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $136 +$497 +365%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $528 −$185 -35%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Hayu Kinoshita Jun 24 $229 +$285 +125%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $497 −$39 -8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $462 +$359 +78%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $354 +$321 +91%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $205 +$149 +72%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $362 −$357 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $160 −$34 -21%
Targu Mures: Benjamin Hassan vs Sumit Nagal Jun 24 $254 −$172 -68%
Targu Mures: Duje Ajdukovic vs Franco Agamenone Jun 24 $178 +$203 +114%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $93 −$79 -85%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $233 −$96 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $203 −$23 -12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide Jun 24 $165 +$119 +72%
Targu Mures: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich Jun 24 $207 +$193 +93%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov Jun 24 $187 −$180 -96%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 23 $43 −$42 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $64 −$62 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $136 −$54 -40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $174 −$97 -56%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 22 $77 +$36 +46%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $166 −$86 -52%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $132 −$129 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $38 +$28 +74%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $613 −$610 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $296 +$355 +120%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $125 +$169 +136%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $183 −$173 -95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 18 $119 +$62 +52%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $140 −$139 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $56 +$45 +82%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $357 −$291 -82%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $102 +$163 +160%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 16¢ $132 36m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic SELL Andrej Nedic $35 47m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 22¢ $51 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 39¢ $146 1h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 99¢ $292 7h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $18 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $26 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $16 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $9 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $5 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $26 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $26 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $11 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $2 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $1 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $6 8h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 51¢ $6 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 32¢ $24 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 49¢ $51 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 55¢ $268 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 55¢ $32 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 55¢ $30 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola $41 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 48¢ $264 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Jerome Kym 57¢ $422 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 35¢ $31 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 63¢ $263 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 46¢ $70 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 54¢ $113 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 54¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.80 · official $117.80 (match) · 2986 history records