Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb1a2…372a
other · 182 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$173,015 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47,811 · open −$4,982
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82,609
Realized+$47,811
Unrealized−$4,982
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses113 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)233 / 182
History coverage214d
Avg bet$22,411
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 10 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126,108
7 days−$126,108
14 days−$125,683
30 days−$125,683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $19,600 $19,760 +$160 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $9,600 $15,150 +$5,550 (+58%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 34¢ 21¢ $16,929 $10,675 −$6,254 (-37%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $8,700 $9,395 +$695 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $8,969 $9,129 +$160 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $11,275 $7,286 −$3,990 (-35%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 65¢ 57¢ $6,500 $5,750 −$750 (-12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3,857 $4,643 +$786 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $1,999 $750 −$1,249 (-62%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 35¢ 16¢ $162 $72 −$90 (-56%)
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5,351 $0 −$5,351 (-100%)
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $9,499 $0 −$9,499 (-100%)
Flames vs. Blues Flames 43¢ 0¢ $774 $0 −$774 (-100%)
Up Only podcast released by November 30? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $10,864 $0 −$10,864 (-100%)
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $1,689 $0 −$1,689 (-100%)
49ers vs. Rams Rams 44¢ 0¢ $4,757 $0 −$4,757 (-100%)
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? No 20¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $6,800 $0 −$6,800 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers Celtics 46¢ 0¢ $422 $0 −$422 (-100%)
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
Jets vs. Sharks Jets 64¢ 0¢ $1,280 $0 −$1,280 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 14 $5,351 −$5,351 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Up Only podcast released by November 30? Jun 14 $10,864 −$11,321 -104%
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jun 14 $1,689 −$1,689 -100%
49ers vs. Rams Jun 14 $4,757 −$4,757 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Jun 14 $6,800 −$6,800 -100%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Jun 14 $312 −$312 -100%
Jets vs. Sharks Jun 14 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 13? Jun 14 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $5,346 −$5,346 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Jun 14 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Jun 14 $796 −$796 -100%
Royals vs. Red Sox Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $4,918 −$4,918 -100%
Browns vs. Jets Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on O Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Jun 14 $721 −$721 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jun 14 $1,147 −$1,147 -100%
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? Jun 14 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Jun 14 $855 −$855 -100%
Saints vs. Panthers Jun 14 $1,656 −$1,656 -100%
Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 AL MVP? Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
MLB All-Star Game Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Islanders Jun 14 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Jun 14 $35 +$1,221 +3460%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jun 14 $7,657 −$7,657 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Jun 14 $627 −$627 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Jun 14 $9,460 −$9,460 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Jun 14 $24,600 −$24,600 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $3,134 −$3,134 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15? Jun 14 $266 −$266 -100%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jun 14 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Jun 14 $874 −$874 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jun 14 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? Jun 14 $2,279 −$2,279 -100%
Will CZ appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,702 −$2,702 -100%
Rangers vs. Red Wings Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 50% +$60,017
crypto 25% −$172,692
world 12% +$258,637
other 9% +$37,067
politics 2% −$4,414
sports 2% −$4,078
finance 0% −$7,168
tech 0% +$2,814
culture 0% −$1,247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3,201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $640 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $196 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,322 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $69 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $212 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $493 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $47 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $47 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $192 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $235 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,353 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $435 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $152 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $49 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $50 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $50 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $0 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $506 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -64.4% -67.8% 2% 2% -99.4%
≤30d 61 -61.9% -65.6% 3% 3% -41.9%
≤90d 85 -27.8% -34.7% 22% 11% -5.5%
all 233 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 26% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 19% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 15% -25.8%
20% -34.6% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,609.18 · official $82,609.18 (match) · 3500 history records