Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1a7…6157 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$24
sports 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 45% -12.2%
≤30d 29 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 45% -12.2%
≤90d 29 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 45% -12.2%
all 29 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 45% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -20.6%
15% -31.1% 28% -28.3%
20% -37.8% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $109 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$47 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $109 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 14h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 15h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records