Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb1a9…d58b sports 674 markets active 1h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,687 (+2%) realized +$1,687 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%300W / 374L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,434
7 days−$1,434
14 days−$403
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,427
crypto 34% −$799
other 14% +$21
politics 1% −$200
world 1% −$51
tech 0% −$38
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -17.8% -25.6% 51% 44% -13.3%
≤30d 155 +2.5% -7.2% 54% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 445 -51.9% -56.5% 25% 23% -34.7%
all 674 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -9.2%
10% -19.7% 36% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 31% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$80 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,687
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses300 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)674 / 674
History coverage348d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 674 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $711 −$689 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $798 −$285 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $517 +$438 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $735 −$713 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $621 −$615 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $592 +$417 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $777 +$128 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $776 +$107 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $488 +$140 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $345 +$241 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $240 +$183 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $265 −$257 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $830 −$565 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $596 −$571 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,029 −$1,004 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $779 +$167 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $787 +$383 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $772 +$35 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $785 +$300 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$254 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $771 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $773 +$63 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $781 +$217 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $793 +$611 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $341 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,477 +$94 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $498 +$144 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $340 +$234 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $505 +$345 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $232 −$225 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $181 +$232 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $185 +$101 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,005 +$190 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $296 −$293 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$179 +96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,308 +$338 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $125 +$175 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $406 +$48 +12%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $552 +$168 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Spread: Magic (-2.5) Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $519 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $96 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $96 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $170 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $346 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $735 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $242 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $379 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $777 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $776 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $240 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $265 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $229 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $415 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $415 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $245 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1467 history records