Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1ac…dad3 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +9.6% -0.9% 45% 45% -3.8%
≤30d 42 +9.6% -0.9% 45% 45% -3.8%
≤90d 42 +9.6% -0.9% 45% 45% -3.8%
all 42 +9.6% -0.9% 45% 45% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 45% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -13.0%
15% -19.0% 43% -21.4%
20% -27.0% 43% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$42 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$25 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$13 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$38 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$13 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $32 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records