Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1b0…3e12 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$118 (+24%) realized +$117 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$4
other 40% +$1
crypto 5% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 58% -12.2%
≤30d 42 +29.8% +17.5% 55% 48% -2.8%
≤90d 42 +29.8% +17.5% 55% 48% -2.8%
all 42 +29.8% +17.5% 55% 48% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 48% -2.8%
10% +6.2% 40% -12.1%
15% -4.0% 33% -20.6%
20% -13.4% 21% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 +$13 +58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +108%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$8 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$17 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$3 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$137 +4579%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 53m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 50¢ $13 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 80¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 52¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 80¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 46¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 23¢ $6 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 81¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.82 · official $14.82 (match) · 89 history records