Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1b2…55f4 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-44%) realized −$129 · open −$99
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$65
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$28
other 30% −$76
world 25% −$129
crypto 8% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 33% -23.5%
≤30d 8 -45.7% -50.8% 25% 25% -44.8%
≤90d 9 -44.4% -49.7% 22% 22% -44.4%
all 9 -44.4% -49.7% 22% 22% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 22% -44.4%
10% -54.5% 22% -49.7%
15% -58.9% 11% -54.6%
20% -62.9% 11% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage40d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 72¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$32 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $38 +$12 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 02 $101 −$46 -46%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 13 $30 −$10 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $28 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $33 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $28 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $13 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $12 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $23 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $55 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $100 33d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes $0 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.65 · official $94.87 · 49 history records