Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1b3…a386 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,068 (-6%) realized −$469 · open −$1,599
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$9,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$900
14 days−$415
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$3,770
world 11% +$546
politics 8% +$4
sports 6% −$123
crypto 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -52.2% -56.8% 33% 17% -59.8%
≤30d 29 -29.6% -36.3% 55% 41% -10.8%
≤90d 44 -29.9% -36.6% 52% 39% -18.3%
all 44 -29.9% -36.6% 52% 39% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 39% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 16% -26.1%
15% -48.2% 7% -33.3%
20% -53.3% 5% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$200 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$9,809
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$1,599
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions41
Markets (closed)44 / 85
History coverage53d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $733 $742 +$10 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $727 $677 −$49 (-7%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 100¢ $456 $600 +$144 (+32%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $618 $554 −$64 (-10%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 35¢ 32¢ $551 $512 −$40 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $506 $505 −$1 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $535 $502 −$34 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $520 $429 −$91 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $412 $421 +$9 (+2%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $326 $376 +$50 (+15%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $374 $323 −$50 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $334 $323 −$11 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $400 $288 −$113 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $255 $285 +$30 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $273 $257 −$16 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $159 $229 +$70 (+44%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $314 $223 −$91 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $201 $216 +$15 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $152 $202 +$50 (+33%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $192 $189 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $124 $185 +$62 (+50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $394 $175 −$219 (-56%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $160 $146 −$14 (-9%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $162 $128 −$35 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $248 $127 −$121 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $118 +$9 +8%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $406 +$53 +13%
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? Jun 21 $29 −$22 -78%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $271 −$152 -56%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $830 −$739 -89%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$17 +31%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $339 +$170 +50%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 18 $1,565 +$401 +26%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $491 +$63 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $523 +$68 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $146 +$12 +8%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $81 +$30 +37%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $523 +$64 +12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $128 +$42 +33%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $186 −$182 -98%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $804 +$111 +14%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $1,229 +$630 +51%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $68 −$68 -100%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $147 −$147 -100%
Will GamerLegion qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $363 −$240 -66%
Will Team Liquid qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 05 $232 +$18 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $603 +$14 +2%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $216 −$210 -97%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $131 −$128 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $2,370 +$508 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $603 +$85 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $757 +$87 +12%
Will BetBoom Team win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 20 $165 −$15 -9%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 20 $915 −$178 -19%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $1,425 −$1,312 -92%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 9z win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $450 +$50 +11%
Will G2 win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $92 −$20 -22%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $91 +$27 +30%
Will FUT Esports win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 14 $169 +$28 +16%
Will PARIVISION win PGL Astana 2026? May 12 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Heroic win PGL Astana 2026? May 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 43m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $36 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $70 4h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $105 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 9h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $110 10h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $101 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,808.60 · official $9,808.60 (match) · 1803 history records