Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1b7…0373 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$497 (+262%) realized +$514 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$47
30 days+$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$8
world 24% +$476
crypto 23% −$35
sports 14% +$63
politics 10% −$1
finance 2% −$4
weather 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 33% +100.6%
≤30d 31 +68.5% +52.4% 32% 32% +135.0%
≤90d 31 +68.5% +52.4% 32% 32% +135.0%
all 31 +68.5% +52.4% 32% 32% +135.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.4% 32% +135.0%
10% +37.8% 29% +112.5%
15% +24.5% 29% +92.0%
20% +12.3% 29% +73.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +492% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +492% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +153% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$3 · ×21.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.0 per $1 lost it wins $10.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)31 / 62
History coverage23d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? No 26¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 52¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+186%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 45¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 50¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 39¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 72¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? No 4¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 +$51 +244%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $1 +$2 +137%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$12 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $5 +$42 +846%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $5 +$447 +8944%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? BUY No 4¢ $5 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $6 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $3 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $15 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 31¢ $2 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 28h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $1 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $5 11d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 12d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 64¢ $1 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.89 · official $59.86 (match) · 103 history records